There are obstacles being laid in the road right in front of us that we're about to crash into! So whats all this driving metaphor crap about?
First, I, like many of you, have read a number of diaries and other posts looking into the rear view mirror at the crash that just happened on Nov. 4th. They range from hand-ringing stories of "if we only had done this or that", to finger pointing at one another which accomplishes nothing. Still others I will admit, present a detailed analysis of what went wrong with a constructive eye towards correcting our mistakes the next time around. That's fine. But we need to identify these mistakes and corrections, and pack them away for the next election, not dwell on them now.
Then there are the political pundits and some around here who are already looking 2 years down the road at the 2016 Presidential elections. We really don't know who the candidates will be and we certainly can't be sure of what the issues will be in 2016. Spending a lot of effort now trying to figure out 2016 is a complete waste of time. Give it a year, things will sort themselves out for 2016.
So stop dwelling on 2014 and 2016, and start worrying about the Congressional obstacles being set up by the Republicans right in front of us. Join me after the jump /\ where I will go over some of the problems a Republican controlled Congress will present in 2015.
Since November 4 when Republicans took control of the Senate and increased their control in the House, we have seen their leaders deliver a schizophrenic message on how they intend to run things when they take full control in 2015. McConnell's initial statement was one filled with cooperative platitudes and an eagerness to work with President Obama and remaining Congressional Dems. on areas of common agreement to get things done. He also went so far to say that there won't be any government shutdowns or debt ceiling crisis. However, from the other side of the Capital, Boehner came out guns-a-blazing with a fiery speech threatening President Obama with all sorts of hell if he so much as thought of doing any sort of immigration reform by Executive action (although he did not explicitly use the Impeach word). He also promised yet another vote on repealing Obamacare, and gave no indication that the House is at all interested in any compromise legislation of any sort.
So what's with the conflicting messages? My take is that Boehner is throwing red meat to his House Republican Caucus which is generally farther to the right than most Senate Republicans. McConnell, on the other hand is probably taking a more political savvy approach by initially creating the appearance of cooperation and then, as soon as President Obama and the Dems. disagree with Republicans on some legislation, he will go into his past confrontational mode and attempt to blame our side for not being willing to work with Republicans. In short, at least Boehner is being honest about the Republican's plans for 2015. After all, playing the obstruction card and then pinning the blame on the Dems. worked well for them in 2014, so they probably see no reason to change.
Anyway, while we are all pretty much resigned to the fact that we won't see anything remotely like progressive legislation for the next 2 years, I'm sure many of you are deriving some comfort in thinking that the filibuster in the Senate and the President's veto pen can protect us from any backsliding on past progressive achievements. However, I am not among the members of this comfortable group, since I see ways we can lose ground in 2015, especially if we progressives decide to just bide our time until 2016. The Congressional/Presidential politics we are about to encounter a both complicated and daunting.
On the Republican side, Speaker Boehner still has the Tea Party caucus to deal with, which may not be much larger, but which will probably be more embolden by the Senate takeover. In the Senate, Mitch McConnell has Ted Cruz to deal with, who will show no restraint in going to his friends in the House behind McConnell's back to sabotage anything that remotely looks like giving ground. Make no mistake about it, the Republicans have every intention to make the next 2 years about confrontation, not cooperation.
On the Democrat side, we are basically powerless in the House, unless Boehner decides he needs Dem. votes to pass something he can't get Tea Party votes for. But so far there is no indication he has any interest in Dem. votes on any bill. If anything it sounds like he is moving closer to his Tea Party wing.
In the Senate, Reid will probably have the filibuster to stop some of the most egregious and repugnant pieces of Republican roll-back legislation. But if Reid should try to stop everything via the filibuster, he could risk being labeled as a hypocritical obstructionist. He may even risk the prospect of having McConnell go for the Nuclear Option, as Ried did in 2013, to further limit the ability to filibuster legislation. While I find the prospect of McConnell going Nuclear to be highly unlikely since it won't get their radical bills into law, Cruz and his far right crazies could try to pressure McConnell into such a Rules change. They would like nothing better than to remove Reid's ability shield President Obama so that they can directly confront him with their radical agenda. Still, I doubt Cruz and Company could convince 51 Senate Republicans to go along, which is what would be needed for a filibuster rules change.
Even if Reid decides to suffer through accusations of being a hypocritical obstructionist and avoids the Nuclear Option, his power to stop legislation through use of the filibuster is not absolute. Under certain circumstances, legislation which specifically involves federal spending and revenue policies can be advanced via the usage of the Budget Reconciliation Process. Through this process, debate on such legislation is specifically limited, thereby making it impossible to filibuster and allowing it to be passed by a simple majority in the Senate. If Senate Republicans choose to use this process, they could send bills to the President's desk which would limit (cut) spending on the ACA or alter the tax code to lower the top tax rate for their wealthy friends. And as can be seen from reading this recent McJoan Post, they are considering doing just that.
Because of our lack of Congressional majorities in either Chamber, and Harry Reid's filibuster dilemma, and in some cases his inability to utilize it, whether we hold our ground for the next 2 years on previous progressive legislative accomplishments or backslide, will largely depend on President Obama, or more precisely which President Obama we get for the next 2 years.
Over the last 6 years, President Obama has had his combative periods with Republicans in which he has stood on principle while we cheered, and his compromise periods where he has sought to make deals with the Republicans while we boo'ed. So what Obama will we see emerging from the ashes of the 2014 election mess? Will he seek common ground with Republicans and try for compromise legislation that will cause us to back slide, or will he stand his ground and wield his mighty veto pen at all the crappy bills that the Republicans land on his desk? Right now there are signs of both Obamas. On immigration, he appears poised for direct confrontation, while on trade deals, specifically the TPP, he appears ready to make a deal. He is also likely to face a number of hostage situations over the next 2 years where Republicans could use debt ceiling limits and government funding bills to try to force Obama to accept ACA cuts or other odorous Republican wish list items like lowering the upper income tax rate for their upper 1% friends or the Keystone Pipeline. I know McConnell has said that there won't be any more debt ceiling fights or government shutdowns, probably because every time the Republicans created these hostage situations their already low political popularity tanked even further. But the Republican's far right Cruz crazy caucus in the Senate combined with Boehner's Tea Party group in the House will push heavily for such standoffs with President Obama. If they feel they can gain politically and make President Obama take the blame, they just might try to once again force President Obama into one or more Star Trek "Kobioshi-Moru" (no win) situations. Hopefully, President Obama has learned from past experiences that when let these bullies force you into a shitty compromise Dems. and the American people lose, but when you stand up to them, they fold and we win.
The point to all this being, that what happens over the next 2 years will largely depend on which President Obama we get, and that somewhat depends on us. If we tune out for 2 years and focus on who the next President will be, and do nothing to help and/or put left side pressure on our current President, we could be in for a rough period of backsliding on past progressive gains. But if we engage with President Obama and make sure he hears from us loud and clear, we have a better chance of getting the Obama who will stand Up To Republicans to keep us from going backwards and maybe even creepy forwards in areas like immigration.